Micro-Simulation of a Smallpox Outbreak using Official Register Data

Brouwers, Lisa and Boman, Magnus and Camitz, Martin and Mäkelä, Kalle and Tegnell, Anders (2010) Micro-Simulation of a Smallpox Outbreak using Official Register Data. Eurosurveillance, 15 (35).

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To explore the efficacy of four vaccine-based policy strategies (ring vaccination, targeted vaccination, mass vaccination, and pre-vaccination of health care personnel combined with ring vaccination) for controlling smallpox outbreaks in Sweden, disease transmission on a spatially explicit social network was simulated. The mixing network was formed from highcoverage official register data of the entire Swedish population, building on the Swedish Total Population Register, the Swedish Employment Register, and the Geographic Database of Sweden. The largest reduction measured in the number of infections was achieved when combining ring vaccination with a pre-vaccination of health care personnel. In terms of per dose effectiveness, ring vaccination was by far the most effective strategy. While unsurprising, the results can to some extent be adapted to other diseases and environments, including other countries, and the methodology employed can be analysed in its own right. The mixing networks and other intrinsic structures generated with the help of the model could prove useful to a larger class of problems within policy making, for example.

Item Type:Article
ID Code:5215
Deposited By:Magnus Boman
Deposited On:07 Mar 2012 12:43
Last Modified:07 Mar 2012 12:43

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